U.S. Housing Supply is Getting New Low

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Realtor.cm recently weighed in the new increase in demand for housing.

“National housing inventory declined 13.6 percent in January, the steepest year-over-year decrease in more than 4 years, pushing the supply of for sale homes in the U.S. to its lowest level since realtor.com began tracking the data in 2012, according to the website’s January Monthly Housing Trends Report released today.

“Based on realtor.com’s analysis, January’s steep year-over-year decline amounted to a national loss of 164,000 listings, tightening the grip of the housing shortage plaguing the U.S. Based on realtor.com data, it shows no signs of easing in the near future as the volume of newly listed properties also declined by 10.6 percent since last year.

The study notes that “Homebuyers took advantage of low mortgage rates and stable listing prices to drive sales higher at the end of 2019, further depleting the already limited inventory of homes for sale. With fewer homes coming up for sale, we’ve hit another new low of for sale-listings in January,” according to Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s chief economist. ‘This is a challenging sign for the large numbers of Millennial and Gen Z buyers coming into the housing market this home buying season as it implies the potential for rising prices and fast-selling homes—a competitive market. In fact, markets such as San Jose in Northern California, which saw inventory down nearly 40 percent last month, are also seeing prices grow by 10 percent while homes are selling at a blistering pace of 51 days.'”

The shortage supply is found at every price level throughout the U.S., but it is especially significant at the entry-level, according to the report. “In January, properties priced under $200,000 declined by 19 percent, an acceleration compared to December’s decline of 18.1 percent. The decline in inventory of mid-tier properties priced between $200,000 and $750,000 also accelerated, to a decline of 12 percent year-over-year, compared to December’s 10.2 percent decline. Even upper-tier properties priced at more than $750,000 declined by 5.9 percent year-over-year compared to December’s decline of 4.4 percent.” The report notes.

As inventory reached its lowest point in recorded history, both listing prices and days on market reacted to the imbalance of supply and demand. “The median U.S. listing price grew by 3.4 percent year-over-year, to $299,995 in January, while prices in 18 metros grew by more than 10 percent. Of the 50 largest metros, 46 saw year-over-year gains in median listing prices, with Philadelphia as the nation’s standout with a 16.0 percent increase over last year. Additionally, with the lack of supply, homes are selling in an average of 86 days, two days more quickly than January of last year.” The report noted.

Other report findings:

“Where Housing Supply Changed the Most
“The metros which saw the largest declines in housing inventory were San JoseSunnyvaleSanta Clara, Calif. (-37.3 percent); PhoenixMesaScottsdale, Ariz. (-35.4 percent); and San DiegoCarlsbad, Calif. (-34.0 percent). Other markets across the country where housing supply had sharp declines included DenverAuroraLakewood, Colo. (-28.8 percent); Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (-27.8 percent); and Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. (-24.4 percent).

“Only two of the 50 largest metros saw inventory increase year-over-year: Minneapolis-St. PaulBloomington, Minn.-Wis. (+9.4 percent); and San AntonioNew Braunfels, Texas (+8.4 percent).

“Where Prices Changed the Most
“Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (+16.0 percent); Rochester, N.Y. (+15.0 percent); and PhoenixMesaScottsdale, Ariz. (+14.5 percent) posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth in January. Other markets across the country where housing prices shot up included Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. (+13.7 percent); and IndianapolisCarmelAnderson, Ind. (+12.9 percent).

“The steepest price declines were seen in Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. (-4.0 percent); Minneapolis-St. PaulBloomington, Minn.-Wis. (-2.0 percent); and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland, Texas (-1.9 percent). However, each of these markets saw yearly price declines decelerate compared to December.

“Where Days on Market Changed the Most
“HartfordWest HartfordEast Hartford, Conn.Raleigh, N.C.; and Oklahoma City, Okla.; saw the largest decreases in days on market with properties spending 13, 13, and 12 fewer days on the market than last year, respectively. Other markets across the country where houses sold faster than last year included Austin-Round Rock, Texas (-9 days); Minneapolis-St. PaulBloomington, Minn.-Wis. (-6 days); and OrlandoKissimmeeSanford, Fla. (-6 days).

“Meanwhile, properties in Las VegasHenderson-Paradise, Nev.; BostonCambridgeNewton, Mass.-N.H.; and DetroitWarrenDearborn, Mich. sold 7, 7, and 6 days more slowly, respectively.

The following chart is from Realtor.com.

Metros Seeing the Largest Declines in Inventory

Metro

Active
Listing
Count YoY

Median
Listing
Price

Median
Listing
Price YoY

Median
Days on
Market

Median Days
on Market
YoY

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

-37.3%

$1,099,500

10.1%

51

-2

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.

-35.4%

$399,750

14.5%

63

0

San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.

-34.0%

$734,500

11.0%

48

2

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

-31.5%

$599,625

6.2%

67

3

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.

-30.5%

$907,500

9.7%

49

1

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

-28.8%

$532,450

8.2%

63

3

Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.

-28.3%

$499,950

11.2%

60

-4

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.

-27.8%

$289,900

16.0%

84

1

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

-26.4%

$309,950

10.7%

75

1

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

-24.4%

$267,400

11.7%

76

2

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

-24.1%

$411,500

3.4%

70

5

Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.

-23.2%

$372,450

6.4%

74

-4

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V.

-22.6%

$479,900

11.0%

68

-4

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

-22.5%

$589,950

10.4%

80

7

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

-22.3%

$480,748

1.3%

72

3

Rochester, N.Y.

-20.8%

$218,400

15.0%

67

-5

Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.

-20.7%

$368,945

3.9%

49

-6

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.

-20.6%

$344,495

6.0%

73

-4

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

-20.2%

$279,450

5.7%

66

-4

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

-19.3%

$939,500

N/A

82

N/A

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.

-19.1%

$274,950

5.8%

82

-13

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

-18.7%

$315,000

5.0%

78

1

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

-18.0%

$325,000

8.7%

89

3

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

-17.3%

$252,450

12.2%

86

-9

Oklahoma City, Okla.

-17.3%

$259,270

10.4%

64

-12

Pittsburgh, Pa.

-16.6%

$189,900

11.7%

96

-8

Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.

-16.3%

$197,900

10.0%

71

3

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

-15.8%

$319,900

6.7%

71

-6

Austin-Round Rock, Texas

-15.7%

$353,293

1.6%

71

-9

Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.

-14.1%

$234,183

13.7%

77

-4

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.

-13.2%

$287,450

5.5%

70

-4

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

-12.5%

$182,450

1.4%

82

-2

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.

-12.2%

$214,450

6.7%

91

-2

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

-11.9%

$279,900

2.9%

86

-2

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

-11.9%

$270,993

12.9%

81

1

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.

-11.2%

$413,000

4.6%

90

-3

Richmond, Va.

-10.9%

$325,090

5.4%

70

-1

Jacksonville, Fla.

-10.5%

$317,495

5.3%

80

-5

Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

-9.6%

$239,950

-4.0%

72

4

Columbus, Ohio

-9.3%

$284,950

12.9%

72

-2

Raleigh, N.C.

-9.0%

$364,166

4.1%

75

-13

New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.

-7.8%

$550,000

5.8%

90

3

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.

-7.2%

$319,950

2.3%

65

-3

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

-6.5%

$339,484

0.4%

66

-4

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

-6.2%

$323,482

2.9%

66

7

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.

-6.0%

$228,450

4.1%

70

6

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

-4.6%

$304,055

-1.9%

71

-4

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

-4.5%

$302,400

1.6%

72

-1

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

8.4%

$287,745

-0.8%

74

-3

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.

9.4%

$371,400

-2.0%

66

-6

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