November Auto Sales Slowdown

Business
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Edmunds forecasts that 1,376,253 new carsand trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.3 million. This reflects a 1.3 percent increase in sales from October 2018, but a 1.3 percent decrease from November 2017. Edmunds analysts note that this month marks the first drop since 2009 in November sales, which have grown year over year in part due to increasing demand following the recession, and in part due to November becoming a bigger sales month thanks to automakers and dealers capitalizing on Black Friday.

“Retailers have been pushing Black Friday car deals through the entire month of November, so unless they decide to pull out all the stops in the 11th hour, this is likely going to be the first time we see November sales take a dip in nearly a decade,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis. “Although sales remain at a healthy level, factors such as increasing market saturation, rising transaction prices and elevated interest rates continue to create headwinds for the industry overall. November’s sales slowdown signifies a new normal that we can expect through at least the end of 2018, and likely into 2019.”

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.3 million vehicles in November 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.0 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2018, for a SAAR of 39.8 million (compared to 3.3 million —  or a SAAR of 39.6 million —  in October).

For the first time, estimates for Tesla are included in the Edmunds retail SAAR calculations, volume forecasts and market share estimates for November. Edmunds analysts note that Tesla’s increasing impact on the market makes it necessary to include these figures as part of the overall industry sales picture, and as a result will continue to include them monthly moving forward.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales
Volume

November
2018 Forecast

November
2017

October 
2018

Change from
November 
2017

Change from 
October 2018

GM*

239,197

245,387

242,000

-2.5%

-1.2%

Toyota

193,516

191,617

191,102

1.0%

1.3%

Ford

190,557

210,205

191,682

-9.3%

-0.6%

Fiat Chrysler

176,695

154,919

177,391

14.1%

-0.4%

Honda

123,689

133,156

122,182

-7.1%

1.2%

Nissan

113,863

135,985

109,962

-16.3%

3.5%

Hyundai/Kia

102,081

101,513

98,127

0.6%

4.0%

VW/Audi

47,205

48,402

45,056

-2.5%

4.8%

Tesla

18,644

Industry

1,376,253

1,394,127

1,358,306

-1.3%

1.3%

*GM sales totals for October 2018 are estimated

**NOTE: November 2018 had 25 selling days, November 2017 had 25 and October 2018 had 26.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

November
2018 Forecast

November
2017

October 
2018

Change
from
November
2017

Change from
October 2018

GM

17.4%

17.6%

17.8%

-0.2%

-0.4%

Toyota

14.1%

13.7%

14.1%

0.3%

0.0%

Ford

13.8%

15.1%

14.1%

-1.2%

-0.3%

Fiat Chrysler

12.8%

11.1%

13.1%

1.7%

-0.2%

Honda

9.0%

9.6%

9.0%

-0.6%

0.0%

Nissan

8.3%

9.8%

8.1%

-1.5%

0.2%

Hyundai/Kia

7.4%

7.3%

7.2%

0.1%

0.2%

VW/Audi

3.4%

3.5%

3.3%

0.0%

0.1%

Tesla

1.4%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

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